Fleeting fall colors

The rainy and cold weather earlier this month had many residents, including me, huddled inside ready for winter hibernation. A brief weeklong respite was a little more like summer than fall. However, a return to cooler temperatures was predicted. As temperature went up and down, the leaves went down. I felt that fall put forth its best effort, but it appeared as if winter was just around the corner. 

According to the Department of Conservation and Natural Resources' fall foliage report issued in early October, the region saw its best color of the season between Oct. 19 to 25.

I agreed that there were awesome hues during the beginning of the forecast period, but I sensed things were dwindling fast.

Meanwhile in the Oct. 19 report, the northwestern region the district manager in Cornplanter State Forest said northwestern forests are beginning to fade.

"Oaks continue to display their brownish-red hues and hickories are also sporting bright golden leaves. Many other species (e.g. maples) have already displayed their best coloration and are shedding leaves. Routes to enjoy the autumn scenery continue to be Route 62 along the Allegheny River, US 6 in the Warren area, and Route 8 from southern Venango into Erie County," the manager wrote. 

The fall foliage report issued Oct. 26 announced that colors were on the decline. ​"Although the statewide peak has passed, spectacular color still adorns Penn’s Woods. Northern oak forests have just begun to peak, offering late season sights in areas where the northern hardwoods are declining," the DCNR said.​​

According to the report, the district manager in Cornplanter State Forest said northwestern forests are fading, but the region still offers plenty of autumn color.
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"Oaks and hickories continue to provide the 'second half' of vibrant shades in northwestern Pennsylvania. The hillsides are dotted with rich bronze, copper, and rust colors," the manager said. 

The shedding of leaves proved to be true of the maple tree in the front yard. It seemed to me that it just started to turn gold within the past few days and was already carpeting the yard with leaves. By week's end, half of the tree's leaves were in the yard. 

To me the tree didn’t seem quite as bright as other years and this week's brisk winds helped many of the leaves fly from the tree. Interestingly enough, a photo from Oct. 24, 2015, still showed a fairly green and full maple tree. 

I was worried that this fall wasn’t going to be quite as colorful as last year. However, this autumn proved to be beautiful in its own way. It didn't seem that the brilliance would linger as long as it did 12 months ago.  Nonetheless, I found myself exclaiming daily, "How beautiful!"

As I walked forward and looked back, every view was full of intensity even on the darker days. I said to myself, "I will take photos of all the trees." After reviewing my snapshots, I'm pretty sure I accomplished that goal. Some trees may have even been pictured twice. By Oct. 24, many of the trees in my wandering woods had bare branches while the forest floor was carpeted with colorful leaves.

​In fact, in an Oct. 25, 2013, photo, the trees along the edge of the backyard were completely void of leaves. In comparison, this year there were still quite a few leaves on the trees.  By mid-week the oak trees started to show their splendor with gold and burgundy leaves. However, near the end of the week even the oak trees began to lose leaves at a rapid pace. Traveling home from work, Bredinsburg Road was covered with leaves. Bare trees conjured up visions of the next season to come. 

As autumn ambled on, forecasts differed on the severity of the upcoming winter. The NOAA Climate Prediction Center, the Farmers' Almanac and Old Farmers' Almanac were at odds in their predictions. 

However, they all three agreed that El Niño would impact this winter's weather.
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Both the Farmers' Almanac and Old Farmers' Almanac predicted a snowy winter season for the Northeast. 
"The 2024 Old Farmer’s Almanac predicts snow, seasonable cold, and all of winter’s delights! This winter’s forecast will surely excite snow bunnies and sweater lovers alike, promising a lot of cold and snow across North America!," said a post on www.almanac.com. 

"Snowfall will be above normal across most snow-prone areas (except for the Pacific Northwest). ... Keep a shovel at the ready early, especially in the Northeast and Midwest, where snow will arrive beginning in November with storms, showers, and flurries continuing through the start of spring," the post continued. 
The post went on to explain that earth was approaching middle of Solar Cycle 25 which could mean colder than normal temperatures. 

The Farmers' Almanac predictions posted at www.farmersalmanac.com also called for colder temps and more snow. ​"Our extended weather forecast, which is based on a mathematical and astronomical formula, calls for below-average temperatures and lots of snowstorms, sleet, ice, rain for much of the Great Lakes, Ohio Valley, and Midwest areas of the country, as well as central and northern New England, especially in January and February," the publication posted. 

Under the "Weather Alerts" section of the article, the almanac offered up a few more details about its winter forecast. "An East Coast storm affecting the Northeast and New England states will bring snowfall, cold rain and then frigid temperatures, during the second week of February," the post said. 

"The second week of January will be stormy, snowy, and wet for both the Pacific Coast and the Eastern States," it continued. The post added that "​March’s extended forecast calls for wild swings in the thermometer, especially in the East."

​Meanwhile, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's forecast for the upcoming winter season differed from both of the almanacs' predictions. 
"This year, El Niño is in place heading into winter for the first time in four years, driving the outlook for warmer-than-average temperatures for the northern tier of the continental United States ...," the Oct. 19 post said. 
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"Warmer-than-average temperatures are favored across the northern tier of the U.S. and much of the Far West," the administration posted. 
In contrast to the almanacs' forecasts, NOAA predicted drier than normal conditions for the winter season. 
"The greatest odds for drier-than-average conditions are forecast in portions of the northern Rockies and central Great Lakes region, especially for Michigan and northern Ohio and Indiana," NOAA posted. 

While NOAA predicted a warmer and drier winter, statics showed that September was dry as well.
According to drought.gov, September 2023 was Venango County's 18th driest September in 129 years with a decrease of 1.64 inches less rain than normal. 
The U.S. Drought Monitor graphic issued Oct. 26 still listed the county as abnormally dry for this time of year.  

​October offered up a little more rainfall, but it didn't seem to make a dent. 
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National Weather Service data recorded a total precipitation amount for Oct. 1-Oct. 25, as 2.78 inches which was slightly short of the average of 3 inches. 

Will it be a mild or harsh winter?  Everyone seemed to have an opinion on the subject.
Lore had it that a heavy mast or acorn crop meant a bad winter. 

While area oaks were discarding their leaves, they additionally were raining acorns down upon the region. 
Is this winter going to be snowy and colder or warmer and drier? The almanacs said "yes" to colder and snowier, and NOAA said "No, this winter will be warmer and drier." 

Meanwhile, the time to enjoy the last vestiges of the fall season was quickly passing. Below is a slideshow of "all the trees" and some fur kids. That's just the nature of things round here.